We enter Tuesday, just a quick summary today due to time limitations!
Recommended betting:
Best of luck
Courtesy of Jake Reed – @jreedy55
After a solid start in Munich rampant Bayern travel to Turin to face Serie A champions Juventus on Wednesday in hope of making it through to the semi-finals which will edge them one step closer towards the Champions league final and ultimately completing the illusive treble. Juventus on the other hand will still have to believe they can qualify despite having a 2 goal deficit inflicted on them from the first game, where Bayern dominated throughout and made the usual rock solid Juventus defence look frail at best.
The majority of bookies have priced Bayern as 13-8 favourites for the away leg, which is a big price for such a great team however punters will need to factor in that Bayern don’t have to win this leg to go through which could be a stumbling block. Juventus on the other hand are priced at 9-5 which is a very big price for such a good team, but are they good enough to beat Bayern this year? No.
The Italians home record in the champions league group stages was very good, beating Nordsjaelland and last years European champions Chelsea 4 and 3 nil, whilst drawing 1-1 to a very impressive Shakthar team. In their last 5 home and away Champions league games they had won every game without conceding, until they played Bayern. This stat once again reinforces my statement that Bayern simply posses such fire firepower that they can trouble anyone in this tournament.
Tactical analysis:
I believe Juventus will have to press extremely hard in high areas of the pitch to not allow Bayern to settle and get into their incisive passing rhythm. They will also need to retain the ball a lot better then they did in Munich to cause Bayern more of a threat and to give their 3 centre-backs time to recuperate and organise the defence, Pirlo will certainly need to have a big impact on the game for this to happen. A big miss for Juventus will be the loss of Arturo Vidal and Stephan Lichtsteiner, due to suspension. Who in my opinion were probably the two best players for Juventus in the first leg, particularly Vidal who pressed the Bayern midfielders relentlessly and showed he has a brilliant engine which you need against Bayern bearing in mind how well they keep the ball.
I expect the Italian side to exploit the wing-back positions with the unique 3-5-2 formation they play, especially due to the fact that Ribery/Robben can often be found wanting when it comes to tracking back and protecting the full back, often the reason why Kroos/Muller usually start on the right hand side of midfield in bigger games due to their work rate and the protection they provide. Unfortunately for Bayern Toni Kroos’ season ending injury suffered in the first leg will be a huge miss, therefore this could enable Juventus to exploit the wider positions.
Bayern will travel to Turin in the ascendency having won their home leg comfortably 2-0 and most importantly didn’t allow Juventus to score a crucial away goal, yet the newly crowned German champions will be rueing the missed chances at home as they could have easily put the tie to bed in the first leg. Even though the German side already have a 2 goal lead I expect them to start brightly, with urgency knowing that an away goal will end the tie. Combine this with the fact that Juve know they need to score 2 just to force extra time, leaving me to think that they will push forward leaving plenty of space in behind for the likes of Ribery/Robben and Muller which altogether could end the tie early on.
Betting preview:
From a betting perspective I had several bets I liked the look of from the outset. The value within the Asian handicap certainly fell with Bayern as even the smallest of Juventus handicaps (+0.25) was a mere 1.75 against such a good Bayern team I am not willing to take that price. A game of this magnitude between two very good teams is always difficult to predict an outright result, especially as both these teams have great home and away records this season. Juventus having played 16; won 12; drew 2 and lost 2, and even more impressively Bayerns away record which consists of 13 wins and a draw whilst only conceding a mere 2 goals.
I feel Bayern are simply a better team than Juventus, this may disgruntle people but that’s my opinion. Add that on top of the fact that Juve will be missing 2 key players as stated above, and with Bayern regaining their first choice holding midfielder, Javi Martinez I can simply see no further than an away win. Too add a little extra protection I will be tipping Bayern -0.25, if the match ends in a draw then half your stake is returned, an away win and your in profit. With Bayern’s away record being the best in Europe I simply can’t bet against them and I fully expect them to continue their great run of form in Turin.
Another bet that caught my eye was BTTS, priced at 7-10 with most bookmakers. With Juventus 2 goals down on aggregate they will need attack and press high up the pitch to give them any chance of qualification, this will enable Bayern to hit them on the counter attack and with the clinical strikers at their disposal I simply cannot see them not scoring, as for Juventus I believe they can score past the Germans rock solid defence with the attacking fire power they possess and the Italians will certainly not go down without a fight.
Good luck and only bet what you can afford!
Match odds-
Juventus- 9-5
Draw- 5-2
Bayern Munich- 13-8
Suggested bets-
Bayern Munich (-0.25) -2.20 (Bet Victor)
BTTS- 7-10 (Bet Victor)
Courtesy of optasports.com
Borussia Dortmund have won their four home games in the Champions League this season (seven goals scored, one against).
Borussia Dortmund have only won one of their last five home games in European competition against Spanish opposition (2-1 v Real Madrid in this season’s CL group stages).
This is Malaga’s first away game in Germany in European competition. They have won none of their last three Champions League games away from home (D2, L1).
Borussia Dortmund are the only unbeaten team in the Champions League this season.
Malaga are the only team yet to concede a first-half goal in the Champions League this season.
Borussia Dortmund have averaged 44% possession in the Champions League this season, the lowest ratio among the eight teams left in the competition.
Alongside Juventus and FC Porto, Malaga have registered the most clean sheets in the CL 2012/13 (5).
Mario Götze has been involved in six of Dortmund’s last 10 Champions League goals, scoring twice and delivering four assists.
Robert Lewandowski has failed to score in his last 229 minutes of play in the CL, his longest drought in this competition since October 2011-September 2012 (421 minutes).
Isco has completed the most dribbles among the players from the eight teams left in the Champions League this season (23).
Sebastian Fernandez has been involved in Malaga’s last two away goals in the CL (1 goal, 1 assist).
The only previous encounter between Galatasaray and Real Madrid on home soil in European competition ended in a 3-2 win for the Turkish side (3 April 2001).
That was Galatasaray’s last home win against Spanish opposition. Since then, they have suffered four defeats and a draw at home versus teams from Spain.
Real Madrid have never won in Turkey in European competition (one draw, one defeat).
Galatasaray have not scored more than one goal in any of their four Champions League home games this season (one win, two draws, one defeat).
Galatasaray have the weakest attacking record among the eight teams left in the Champions League this season, with 11 goals in nine games.
Real Madrid have scored the most goals in the Champions League this season (21) and Cristiano Ronaldo is the top-scorer of the competition so far (9 goals).
Real Madrid have only failed to score once in their last 34 Champions League games and have managed to score in their last 16 away CL games.
Galatasaray (12) and Real Madrid (11) have conceded the most goals among the eight teams left in the Champions League this season.
Galatasaray have conceded exactly two goals in each of their last four European home games against Spanish opposition.
Galatasaray have only kept a clean sheet once in their last 14 Champions League games (versus Manchester United in this season’s group stage)
Galatasaray have struck the woodwork seven times, more than any other side in the Champions League this season. The ex-Real Madrid midfielder Hamit Altintop has been the most unfortunate (three shots against the woodwork).
Burak Yilmaz has netted 73% of Galatasaray’s goals in the CL 2012/13 (eight out of 11).
Burak Yilmaz has scored all three home goals scored by Galatasaray in the CL this season and in three of his four home games played in this competition in 2012/13.
Cristiano Ronaldo has been involved in 40 goals in his 37 games played for Real Madrid in the Champions League (32 goals, 8 assists). Since 2009/10, only Lionel Messi has been involved in more CL goals (52 – 42 goals, 10 assists).
Karim Benzema has been involved in 27 goals in his 31 games played for Real Madrid in the Champions League (18 goals, 9 assists).
Only Thierry Henry has scored more goals (50) than Karim Benzema (30) among French players in the Champions League (excluding qualifiers).
No French club has won at the Camp Nou in the Champions League (one draw, four defeats). PSG are the only team not to have lost in Barcelona in this competition.
The only French club to beat Barcelona at Camp Nou is Metz, back in October 1984 (Cup Winners Cup).
PSG’s only previous trip to Camp Nou in the Champions League was back in March 1995. They drew 1-1 with Barcelona.o Barcelona are unbeaten in their last 20 Champions League games at Camp Nou (16 wins, 4 draws), their last defeat dating back to October 2009 against Rubin Kazan (1-2). PSG are unbeaten in their last seven Champions League game, their second best run in their competition (8 games without defeat between September 1994 and March 1995).
PSG have only lost two of their last seven European away games in Spain, winning four (against Real Madrid, Deportivo La Coruna, Sevilla and Valencia) and drawing one.
PSG have won their last three away games in the Champions League (against Dinamo Zagreb, Dinamo Kiev and Valencia), scoring twice in each of these games.
25% of the teams have managed to qualify for the next round in the knockout stage of the Champions League after drawing 2-2 at home in the first leg (4 out of 16).
Barcelona have always scored against French opposition in the Champions League (11 games).
All 19 of PSG’s goals in the Champions League this season have been scored from inside the box, more than any other side.
Barcelona have scored the opening goal in each of their four encounters against PSG in European competition.
Barcelona have averaged 73.7% possession in the Champions League, more than any other side and their best ratio in this competition since Opta started to analyse it.
Since 2007/08, Barcelona have only played six of their Champions League without Lionel Messi (8%). Only Victor Valdès has played as many CL games as the Argentinian (65) in this period.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic has delivered six assists in the Champions League this season, more than any other player.
Thiago Silva has made the most interceptions in the Champions League this campaign (33).
The last time Bayern Munich visited Juventus in Turin, they scored four goals (4-1 win in December 2009).
This is the last home defeat registered by Juventus in the Champions League.
Juventus have only lost two of their 17 home CL games in the knockout stages (10 wins, five draws).
None of Juventus’ seven home encounters with German clubs in the Champions League has ended in a draw (four wins, three defeats). The Turin side has never failed to score in any of those seven games.
Bayern Munich have only won three of their 12 away games against Italian sides in the Champions League.
Arturo Vidal has won the most duels (73) and the most tackles (37) among the players from the eight teams left in the Champions League this season.
Arjen Robben scores a goal every 20 shots in Europe this season, the lowest ratio among players left in the Champions League 2012/13.
Bayern Munich have picked up the most cards among teams left in this season’s Champions League (24, 23 yellows, 1 red).
Only Arsenal have stopped Bayern Munich from scoring in the Champions League this season.
Bayern Munich have had 10 different goalscorers in the Champions League this season, more than any other side.
Arturo Vidal has been involved in three of Juventus’ last four home goals in the CL (1 goal, 2 assists).
Thomas Müller has been involved in four of Bayern’s last five away goals in the CL (3 goals, 1 assist).
We have the last of the quarter final first legs tonight:
We have some Opta facts on the two games, courtesy of optasports.com
Malaga v Borussia Dortmund
Real Madrid v Galatasaray
In the first game, Malaga host Dortmund in the first leg, with Malaga never losing at home in a European competition in the proper stages. dortmund have now fared well travelling to spain, so the 5/4 looks pretty short. The home team have won just 2 of the last 6, last losing to Espanyol in La Liga. Both teams will keep the first leg tight, and under 2.5 goals is 20/23 with BetVictor, which is attractive enough.
Malaga are a BIG 5/2 for qualification to the semi-finals, with Dortmund at 3/10.
In the other game, Real Madrid host the Turkish giants Galatasaray, with the home team at 1/5 for the win, with the away side out at 20/1 for the shock win. Real Madrid are odds on -2 goals, but can be found at 6/5 at Boylesports. The Turkish side are no pushover’s. Consider the half time handicap tie at 15/8 with Ladbrokes.
Recommended betting:
Newspaper tips:
Racing Post –
Daily Mirror
The Sun: Tot’s Tips:
The Metro:
We enter the quarter finals of the Champions League, with 2 matches on the Tuesday and 2 on the Wednesday!
PSG welcome Barcelona for the first leg, with Barcelona the 13/17 favourties with Pinnacle to win in France. Barcelona will not be complacent and will look to wrap up a win. Blue Square go 2/1 for Barcelona to win by 2 or more, which will be more than possible on the night.
Munich host Juventus in a clash, which is sure to be a classic. Bayern will have the momentum to take a lead to Juventus, and can be backed at 4/6 with Ladbrokes.
Opta facts for the match
Courtesy of optasports.com
Paris SG v Barcelona
Bayern Munich v Juventus
Brighton can strengthen their case for a play off spot with a win at home to Charlton. They are 13/16 with Pinnacle, and should be able to collect the 3 points. Charlton have little to play for now, being 10 points off the play offs, may be a tall ask, and Brighton could effectively end their campaign tuesday night.
Hull versus Watford will be the game of the evening on paper, with second place Hull taking on third place Watford. A win for Watford can take them to within a point of Hull, with the battle for second ultimately on. Hull have collected 9 from the last 18, with Watford collecting 8 from the last 18. Watford’s draw dropped them two points, which could have created a winner ends the night in second place. 8 of the 12 games combined in both teams last 6 games have resulted in the game going over 2.5 goals, so a near 67% success. Over 2.5 can be found 10/11 with a few firms, with Coral taking just 8/11 on the market. Both teams to score is a general 8/11 and Watford are 6/4 on the draw no bet market.
Middlesborough will look to get back to winning ways, after losing 4 on the bounce, but play a Peterborough side who are unbeaten in the last 6, including wins in the last 2 against Cardiff and Blackpool. Middlesborough have only lost once to Peterborough in 9 league meetings winning 4 and drawing the other 4. Posh are certainly worth a look at extending their magnificent 4/5 with Posh getting a goal start.
Recommended betting:
Courtesy of optasports.com
Paris SG v Barcelona
Bayern Munich v Juventus
Malaga v Borussia Dortmund
Real Madrid v Galatasaray
The FA Cup replay between Blackburn and Millwall would never have taken place so soon, if they were both Premier League teams, or would it?
Opta facts for the match, courtesy of optasports.com
Blackburn Rovers v Millwall
The initial game ended 0-0 with the prospect of facing a trip to Wembley against Wigan, both teams will press extra hard to go and win this. Both teams may cancel each other out and we could see this going to extra time.
Best match odds:
Millwall have now been goal-less in 270 match minutes now! The home team have gone 180 match minutes, so some may take the shrewd bet this trend continues and get 11/10 at Paddy Power for one or neither team scoring. Blackburn have enough to qualify, but remember Millwall’s infamous cup run’s and appearances in the latter stages of this competition. Some say the form book is thrown out the window with the FA cup and Millwall are scorching at 13/8 with Paddy Power to qualify.
Recommended betting:
Other bets:
We have a couple of BIG Champions League games, where we wonder if Barcelona are able to overcome their loss en route to regaining the elite title. Barcelona are no bigger than 1/3 to win in 90 minutes in the return leg and as short as 1/5 at William Hill. Barcelona are best 13/10 to qualify with AC Milan 8/11 despite their two goal advantage!
Opta facts, courtesy of optasports.com
In the domestic leagues we have Doncaster playing Carlisle, with Donny beating Bournemouth away at a time where they need to keep winning to ensure the league title comes to Donny!
Yeovil need to continue to pressure on the playoffs and will have to work hard to beat Crawley, and should in front of their home crowd. Similarly Sheffield United will need to main the pressure also, and at around 13/10 away, will be backed by a few punters.
Peterborough need to begin picking points up to stave off relegation, and scoring five goals in the last three matches, surely they can notch one goal on the scoresheet against a open Leeds team! Barnet are also in need of points, and make the short trip to Oxford, in their quest to come away with at least a point..
Recommended betting:
Both teams to score:
A limited card to Wednesday, with two Champions League games and a few domestic games to contend.
Looking at the Opta facts, courtesy of optasports.com
Juventus – Celtic
Paris SG – Valencia
We find it hard to go with PSG, when they do not need to win. Valencia need two or more to win, and could do this, but it will be a tough game. Both teams are capable of scoring ticks our boxes at 4/5 with Coral. Looking at the other game, Juventus should see off Celtic at home, but 3-0, is worth avoiding at 4/11.
Going into the conference, and two games entertain us on Wednesday with Woking hosting title-chasing Mansfield. Mansfield have won their last four by a one goal margin with three of those four winning 1-0, two of which is away! Woking have seen three of the last six games see it go under 2.5 goals with four out of the last six for Mansfield. BetVictor is a stonking 13/10 on this game going under 2.5 goals, and on a chilly night, it may be seen.
The stats are very similar in the other game being held between Macclesfield and Lincoln. The odds are not as generous here, but worth taking with Paddy Power’s 11/10 on under 2.5 goals.
Recommended betting:
Bet365 are offering the free in play bet offer on the Manchester United Vs Real Madrid game. Essentially punters get the chance to secure a risk free profit. A real time example of how to make a risk free profit is via these steps
The bet:
Step one
Back the “Double Chance” market and back Manchester United/Real Madrid to win at odds of 29/100.
Indicative return – £50 pays £64.50
Step two
As soon as the game begins back the “Draw” currently at 13/5 in play
Indicative return – £50 pays £180
Possible outcomes:
Step one wins – Total stake £50 pays £64.50 and step two refunded = total return £114.50
Step two wins – Total stake £50 pays £180 and step one bet is lost = total return £180.00
Total profit:
Step one – £14.50
Step two – £80.00
Risk free profit!
In a Champions League double, Dortmund have the slight advantage of two away goals, so Shaktar will either have to win 1-0 or 2-1 as sensible score lines. The price for both teams to score is the same as Dortmund winning the game. Dortmund are unbeaten in the Champions League this season. No Ukraine team have ever beaten Dortmund, and this trend could continue and in three home games have conceded just one goal.
Betting: Singles
Lockup Single of the day – Luton 1/1 Paddy Power
Lockup “Daley” Double – Dortmund and Wrexham to win pays 2.27 at Stan James
Best of luck punters!
dartstipsters 